Các tiêu chí để đánh giá một Công ty thực sự tiềm năng hay không?

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Để xác định được một công ty tốt trước khi đầu tư chúng ta cần phải biết. Công ty tốt là công ty mà bạn tin chắc những năm tiếp theo thu nhập trên một cổ phiếu (EPS) tăng và dẫn đến giá cổ phiếu sẽ tăng, giá bán cổ phiếu cũng tăng và bạn sẽ kiếm lời khi bạn bán ra sau đó. Đồng thời cổ phiếu hay giá trị của công ty sẽ hồi phục và lớn mạnh sau những tin xấu hoặc thảm hỏa, suy thoái, sai lầm của ban lãnh đạo hay có đối thủ mới… Dưới đây là các tiêu chí để xác định một công ty tốt.

Tiêu chí 1: Doanh thu và lợi nhuận tăng đều đặn trong thời gian dài

Dấu hiệu đầu tiên cho biết một công ty có thể liên tục tăng lợi nhuận trong tương lai chính là thành tích trong quá khứ. Nếu công ty liên tục tăng doanh thu và lợi nhuận trong vòng ít nhất 3-5 năm, đặc biệt là trong giai đoạn suy thoái, nhiều khả năng nó sẽ tiếp tục tăng trong hiện tại và tương lai. Nếu trong quá khứ công ty thu được lợi nhuận đều đặn, bạn có thể tự tin dự đoán được lợi nhuận của công ty trong tương lai.

Bên cạnh việc bảo đảm lợi nhuận tăng đều đặn, bạn cũng cần kiểm tra xem doanh thu có tăng không. Lý do là vì một số công ty ma giáo có thể dùng nghiệp vụ kế toán để “phù phép” con số lợi nhuận hấp dẫn (điều này không phải là hiếm), nhưng doanh thu không thể thay đổi. Nếu một công ty có lợi nhuận tăng nhưng doanh thu chững lại hay giảm, điều đó đôi khi có nghĩa là công ty không hoạt động tốt mà chỉ “làm đẹp” những con số.

Tiêu chí 2: Lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững (Rào chắn kinh tế mạnh)

Mặc dù một công ty có thể giữ vững nhịp độ tăng lợi nhuận trong quá khứ, vẫn không có gì đảm bảo nó sẽ tiếp tục hoạt động tốt trong tương lai. Một đối thủ mới nặng ký có thể nhảy vào thị trường xâm chiếm thị phần hoặc đẩy giá xuống thấp, khiến công ty bị giảm doanh thu và lợi nhuận.Điều gì sẽ giúp giảm thiểu nguy cơ này? Làm sao để ngăn chặn việc đối thủ giành giật khách hàng, kể cả khi họ hạ giá bán? Câu trả lời nằm ở lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững.Để tôi nêu ra một ví dụ. Yếu tố gì giúp công ty Nike mỗi năm bán được nhiều giày hơn, cho phép công ty liên tục tăng lợi nhuận? Tại sao các đối thủ khác không thể tranh giành khách hàng với Nike bằng cách tung ra loại giày rẻ hơn? Ngay cả khi bạn có thể sản xuất một đôi giày tốt hơn gọi là Niki, liệu bạn có thể lấy đi tất cả khách hàng của Nike không? Điều này gần như không thể xảy ra. Tại sao? Đó là vì thương hiệu Nike có lợi thế cạnh tranh rất lớn. Khách hàng mua Nike vì lòng trung thành với thương hiệu và cảm giác mạnh mẽ mà logo Swoosh nổi tiếng mang lại! Rõ ràng, lợi thế cạnh tranh của Nike so với các công ty sản xuất giày khác sẽ được duy trì bền vững trong nhiều năm tới, bảo vệ công ty trước các đối thủ cạnh tranh. Đây gọi là lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững. Giống như hào nước xung quanh tòa lâu đài chống lại kẻ thù bên ngoài xâm nhập, lợi thế cạnh tranh giúp bảo vệ vùng lợi nhuận trong tương lai của công ty khỏi những kẻ xâm lược. Đó là lý do tại sao những công ty hùng mạnh như Nike còn được biết đến là có rào chắn kinh tế mạnh.Tuy vậy, thương hiệu mạnh không phải là thứ duy nhất có thể đem lại cho công ty lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững. Trở thành một công ty lớn với quy mô kinh tế đồ sộ cũng giúp công ty có rào chắn kinh tế mạnh. Ví dụ, khó có công ty nào có thể đánh bại chuỗi cửa hàng Wal-Mart hay Amazon.com (trang web bán sách lớn nhất thế giới).Nhờ vào quy mô lớn, họ có thể mua tất cả các mặt hàng đáng giá hàng triệu đô với giá cực rẻ, giúp họ đẩy giá bán xuống thấp hơn bất kỳ ai.Dẫn đầu thị trường cũng là một lợi thế cạnh tranh mạnh mẽ. Ví dụ, VISA được sử dụng rộng rãi như một loại thẻ tín dụng số một nên hầu như tất cả các cửa hàng đều phải chấp nhận khách hàng trả tiền bằng VISA và đa số các ngân hàng đều hợp tác với VISA. Khả năng có một đối thủ mới nhảy vào thị trường thẻ tín dụng và lấy đi thị phần của VISA là rất khó. Đôi khi, lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững của công ty nằm ở một công thức đặc biệt, công nghệ hay bản quyền sáng chế mà họ sở hữu. Những hãng dược phẩm có thể liên tục kiếm được lợi nhuận cao bởi vì họ nắm giữ bằng sáng chế những loại thuốc đặc biệt (như Viagra, Panadol…) mà không một công ty nào khác có thể sao chép và sản xuất một cách hợp pháp. Khi đầu tư vào công ty có lợi thế cạnh tranh mạnh và bền vững giúp bảo vệ nó khỏi đối thủ và giữ chân khách hàng, bạn có thể dự đoán chắc chắn rằng lợi nhuận và giá trị cổ phiếu của công ty sẽ tiếp tục tăng.

Nói chung, lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững của một công ty có thể đến từ những khía cạnh sau:

a. Thương hiệu mạnh (như Coke, Nike, Hersheys, Budweiser, v.v…)

b. Bằng sáng chế và bí quyết kinh doanh (ví dụ: các công ty dược phẩm như Pfizer)

c. Quy mô kinh tế khổng lồ (như chuỗi cửa hàng Wal-Mart, Amazon.com, v.v…)

d. Dẫn đầu thị trường khiến đối thủ khó lòng chen chân vào (như General Electric,VISA, Microsoft, Google.com)

e. Chi phí thay đổi lớn để giữ chân khách hàng (như phần mềm Microsoft, Adobe, v.v…)

Đặc điểm của công ty có lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững (Rào chắn kinh tế mạnh)

Làm thế nào để biết được công ty bạn muốn đầu tư có rào chắn kinh tế mạnh? Đó thường là những công ty bán các sản phẩm hay dịch vụ độc quyền đối với người tiêu dùng. Điều này có nghĩa là sản phẩm đó thường độc nhất vô nhị, nên kể cả khi giá tăng, nhu cầu vẫn mạnh. Ví dụ, dù Ferrari, Nike, McDonalds, Harley Davidson hay Microsoft có tăng giá đi chăng nữa thì người ta vẫn sẽ mua, vì những sản phẩm này được xem là “không gì có thể sánh được”. Do có ít đối thủ cạnh tranh trực tiếp, những công ty có rào chắn kinh tế mạnh hưởng tỉ lệ lợi nhuận cao, liên tục gia tăng lợi nhuận và giá trị cổ phiếu. Các cửa hàng phải bán những sản phẩm độc quyền này nếu họ không muốn mất khách hàng. Ví dụ, dù muốn hay không, siêu thị nào cũng phải bán Coca-Cola và nhà thuốc nào cũng phải bán Panadol.

Đặc điểm của công ty cạnh tranh về giá (Rào chắn kinh tế yếu)

Ngược lại, nên tránh đầu tư vào những công ty chủ yếu cạnh tranh về giá và không có lợi thế cạnh tranh thật sự. Những công ty này thường bán các sản phẩm thuộc loại nhu yếu phẩm hàng ngày, tương tự như hàng ngàn công ty khác. Kết quả, giá cả là yếu tố quyết định quan trọng nhất đối với người tiêu dùng. Công ty chỉ cần tăng giá lên 10% là rất nhiều khách hàng sẽ bỏ sang mua của đối thủ có giá rẻ hơn. Công ty xăng dầu, các hãng sản xuất vật liệu thô, nhà cung cấp dịch vụ Internet, hãng hàng không, viễn thông và sản xuất xe hơi đều rơi vào loại này. Dù bạn có thể lập luận rằng những công ty như Mobil, British Airways là những thương hiệu mạnh, nhưng suy cho cùng họ cũng không thể vừa tăng giá theo ý muốn vừa giữ được khách hàng. Ví dụ nếu British Airways tăng giá lên 20%, nhiều khách hàng sẽ chuyển sang các hãng khác rẻ hơn. Tuy vậy, với một công ty có quyền lực thật sự như Ferrari thì dù xe có tăng giá 20%, nhiều khách hàng vẫn mua. Kết quả, những công ty cạnh tranh về giá thường có tỉ lệ lợi nhuận thấp và lợi nhuận tăng giảm thất thường. Bởi vì họ chủ yếu cạnh tranh về giá, phần lớn lợi nhuận thường được tái đầu tư để cải tiến hệ thống kinh doanh thay vì dùng để phát triển sản phẩm mới, tìm thị trường mới giúp tăng doanh thu và lợi nhuận.

Tiêu chí 3: Yếu tố tăng trưởng trong tương lai

Có thành tích tốt trong quá khứ và lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững cũng chưa hẳn là yếu tố đảm bảo cho doanh thu và lợi nhuận cao trong tương lai, trừ phi công ty có kế hoạch phát triển cụ thể để biến tiềm năng thành doanh thu thực tế.Nếu công ty không có kế hoạch phát triển sản phẩm mới hay mở rộng ra thị trường mới, doanh thu và lợi nhuận trong tương lai sẽ không thể tăng mãi được. Bạn phải đảm bảo rằng công ty bạn muốn đầu tư có một số yếu tố tăng trưởng sau:

• Phát triển dòng sản phẩm mới

• Phát triển công nghệ sản phẩm mới

• Có bằng sáng chế mới

• Mở rộng công suất (ví dụ: xây nhà máy lớn hơn)

• Mở rộng ra thị trường mới

• Có nhiều chi nhánh hơn

• Có nhiều thị trường tiềm năng chưa được khám phá

Để tìm hiểu sức tăng trưởng của công ty trong tương lai, bạn có thể đọc “Tin từ giám đốc” (CEOs Message) hay “Thư cho cổ đông” (Letter to Shareholders) trong Báo Cáo Tài Chính mới nhất của công ty.

Tiêu chí 4: Nợ vừa phải

Trong khi vay nợ là một chiến lược tốt nhằm tăng nguồn vốn để mở rộng kinh doanh, nợ quá nhiều có thể dẫn đến phá sản nếu gặp thời buổi suy thoái hay do quản lý dòng tiền kém.Điều quan trọng là bạn phải bảo đảm lượng tiền vay mượn của công ty nằm ở mức vừa phải và có thể trả nợ dễ dàng trong vòng 3 đến 4 năm.

Quy luật vàng là nợ dài hạn phải ít hơn từ 3 đến 4 lần Lợi nhuận ròng hiện tại (sau khi đã trừ thuế).

Bạn có thể xem khoản nợ dài hạn của công ty ở Bảng Cân Đối Tài Chính, dưới mục “Nợ dài hạn” và Lợi nhuận ròng có thể tìm thấy trong Bảng Báo Cáo Lời Lỗ (hay Bảng Báo Cáo Hoạt Động Kinh Doanh).

Tiêu chí 5: Lợi nhuận trên tổng số vốn (ROE) luôn ở mức cao (>15%)Lợi nhuận trên tổng số vốn (ROE) cho biết công ty kiếm được bao nhiêu lợi nhuận với số tiền nhà đầu tư bỏ vào. ROE được tính bằng cách lấy Lợi nhuận ròng chia cho Tổng số vốn cổ đông (trong Bảng Cân Đối Tài Chính).

ROE là con số rất quan trọng cần được xem xét vì công ty liên tục có ROE cao thể hiện:

• Công ty có lợi thế cạnh tranh bền vững.

• Đầu tư dưới dạng cổ đông sẽ có tỉ lệ tăng trưởng hàng năm cao, dẫn tới giá cổ phiếu cao trong tương lai.

Nhìn chung, công ty có ROE khoảng 12% được xem là trung bình. Không có nhiều công ty liên tục đạt được mức ROE cao hơn 15% và đó là nơi đáng để đầu tư.

Vì ROE thường được sử dụng để đánh giá công ty, bạn không phải tự mình tính toán con số này. ROE thường được nêu rõ trong báo cáo hàng năm của công ty, ở mục “Tóm tắt tình hình tài chính” (Financial Performance Summary) hoặc mục “Các tỉ số tài chính” (Financial Ratios). Bạn có thể dễ dàng tìm được ROE trong quá khứ của các công ty tại https://www.morningstar.com/  hay https://www.moneycentral.com/  (các công ty Mỹ) và https://www.vndirect.com/  https://www.vcbs.com.vn/ … (các công ty Việt Nam).

Tiêu chí 6: Không đòi hỏi đầu tư nhiều vào cơ sở hạ tầng để duy trì hoạt động hiện tại

Hãy cẩn thận với những công ty tạo ra lợi nhuận cao NHƯNG một phần lớn tiền được dùng lại vào việc thay thế nhà máy và thiết bị để đảm bảo công ty vận hành như hiện tại. Những công ty cạnh tranh về giá và những ngành công nghiệp đòi hỏi vốn đầu tư cao (kết cấu thép, xây dựng, sản xuất máy bay, xe hơi, v.v…) thường phải chi một phần lớn lợi nhuận vào việc giúp cho công ty hoạt động hiệu quả hơn. Vì việc tái đầu tư một phần lợi nhuận không được xem là chi phí mà là tài sản nên Bảng Báo Cáo Hoạt Động Kinh Doanh của những công ty này làm cho họ có vẻ như đang kiếm được rất nhiều tiền. Nhưng trong thực tế, họ không còn tiền để trả lại cho nhà đầu tư, hoặc để đầu tư vào sản phẩm mới hay thị trường mới để thúc đẩy đà tăng trưởng.Đó là lý do tại sao Warren Buffett tránh xa những công ty đòi hỏi chi phí đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng cao để duy trì hoạt động. Ông thích đầu tư vào những công ty không cần quá nhiều thay đổi về máy móc, không cần chuyên sâu nghiên cứu và sản xuất ra những sản phẩm không bao giờ lỗi thời. Những doanh nghiệp như Coca-Cola (một trong những công ty chính mà Warren nắm cổ phần) có sản phẩm (Coke) không bao giờ lỗi thời. Do đó, công ty có thế dùng toàn bộ tiền lãi để chia cổ tức hay đầu tư vào thị trường mới. Tương tự, Nike không sở hữu nhà máy riêng và không phải chi một phần lớn lợi nhuận để thay thế máy móc đắt tiền, chính vì thế mà công ty có lượng tiền mặt dư dả.Có một cách để đánh giá yếu tố này là nhìn vào phần “Lưu chuyến tiền tự do”. Tiền tự do là số tiền công ty còn lại sau khi lấy Lưu chuyển tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh trừ đi những khoản đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng. (Bạn có thể tìm thấy cả hai con số này trong Bảng Báo Cáo Lưu Chuyển Tiền Tệ).

Lưu chuyển tiền tự do = Lưu chuyển tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh – Tiền đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng

Thông thường, nếu tỉ số lưu chuyển tiền tự do chia cho doanh thu cao hơn 5%, công ty được xem là tốt, có của ăn của để.

Tiêu chí 7: Ban lãnh đạo trung thực và có tài đầu tư tài sản

Đây là một trong những tiêu chí quan trọng nhất để đánh giá công ty, tuy nhiên nó cũng là tiêu chí khó xác định nhất. Không thiếu gì công ty có giám đốc điều hành và ban quản lý không làm việc vì lợi ích của cổ đông mà vì lợi ích bản thân họ. Bạn phải hiểu rằng ban giám đốc thật ra cũng chỉ là người làm thuê, thậm chí có thể không phải là cổ đông nữa. Kết quả, một số người tính đến quyền lợi cá nhân trước, như trả cho mình mức lương cao ngất ngưởng, tiêu xài hoang phí đến mức chẳng còn bao nhiêu để chia lãi cho cổ đông.Nhiều giám đốc láu cá còn cắt các khoản chi phí quan trọng như quảng cáo, R&D (nghiên cứu và phát triển) để tăng lợi nhuận ngắn hạn làm cho công ty có vẻ hoạt động tốt. Bạn có thể gọi “mánh” này là “tân trang”. Tuy vậy, xét về lâu dài, công ty sẽ mất dần thị phần và giá cổ phiếu sẽ giảm. Để đảm bảo giá trị cổ phiếu của công ty tăng về lâu dài, bạn phải chắc chắn rằng ban giám đốc đang điều hành công ty là những người thành thật và tài giỏi.Vậy trước khi đầu tư vào một công ty, bạn hãy tự hỏi mình những câu hỏi này:

• Ban quản lý có làm việc vì lợi ích của cổ đông không?

• Ban quản lý có hành động nhằm tối đa hóa lợi nhuận trong tương lai và giá trị của cổ đông không?

Một lần nữa, không dễ tìm ra câu trả lời cho những câu hỏi trên, nhưng bạn có thể căn cứ vào một vài dấu hiệu sau để xét xem ban quản lý có làm việc vì lợi ích của cổ đông không. Thông thường, nếu một giám đốc thâm niên (đặc biệt là tổng giám đốc) giữ một phần đáng kể cổ phiếu của công ty, ta có cơ sở để tin rằng họ làm việc vì lợi ích tốt nhất của công ty, vì trong đó cũng có quyền lợi của họ. Bạn sẽ dễ dàng biết được số cổ phần mà mỗi người trong ban quản lý công ty nắm giữ bằng cách đọc báo cáo hàng năm, trong mục “Báo cáo ủy quyền” (Proxy statement) hay mục “Dành cho ban lãnh đạo” (Corporate governance section). Vì thế, nếu giám đốc điều hành hay những thành viên chủ chốt của công ty bất ngờ bán một phần lớn cổ phiếu mà họ nắm giữ thì đây có thể là dấu hiệu cho biết công ty này không đáng để bạn bỏ tiền vào. Bạn có thể theo dõi việc mua bán cổ phiếu của ban quản lý công ty bằng cách vào tìm ở mục “Insider Trades” (Mua bán nội bộ).Một dấu hiệu khác là nhìn vào phần lương thưởng và những hậu đãi dành cho ban lãnh đạo, có thể tìm thấy trong mục “Báo cáo ủy quyền” hay “Dành cho ban lãnh đạo”. Những giám đốc thật sự lo cho công ty thường nhận lương rất thấp hoặc trung bình, còn tiền thưởng thì tùy thuộc vào kết quả hoạt động chung. Bằng cách này, họ chỉ được thưởng hậu hĩnh nếu công ty đạt lợi nhuận cao. Ban quản lý tốt cũng tránh những khoản tiêu xa hoa như ngồi ghế máy bay hạng nhất và các khoản chi phí khổng lồ khác. Sam Walton của Wal-Mart, một trong những công ty lớn nhất và thành công nhất thế giới, chỉ bay vé phổ thông để tiết kiệm tiền cho công ty. Tỉ phú Warren Buffett chỉ trả lương cho mình 100.000 đô/năm và hơn 70% tài sản cá nhân của ông nằm trong cổ phiếu của công ty (lương trung bình của giám đốc ở các công ty lớn thường từ 600.000 đô tới một triệu đô một năm). Đây là lý do tại Sao công ty Berkshire Hathaway của Warren là một trong những doanh nghiệp có giá cổ phiếu đắt nhất thế giói (một cổ phiếu trị giá 250.000 đô vào năm 2.2017).

Trước khi mua một cổ phiếu nào đó, bạn cũng cần tìm hiểu những quyết định lớn của ban lãnh đạo về phát triển và đầu tư cho công ty trong vòng 5 năm qua. Đó là những thông tin được công bố trong Báo Cáo Hàng Năm, hoặc tìm mục “Key developments” (Những phát triển chính) hay “Recent news” (Tin mới nhất). Nếu thấy ban lãnh đạo có những quyết định không đi liền với lợi ích lâu dài của cổ đông, bạn đừng mua cổ phiếu này.

Nếu công ty mà bạn chọn đạt phần lớn các tiêu chí trên, thì đấy là một công ty tốt và có tiềm năng gia tăng giá trị trong nhiều năm tới. Tuy vậy, nhà đầu tư giỏi chỉ mua cổ phiếu nếu giá thật hời. Hãy nhớ lại rằng trong ngắn hạn, thị trường có xu hướng phản ứng thái quá với tin xấu hoặc tốt, đẩy giá cổ phiếu lên quá cao hoặc quá thấp so với giá trị thực. Bằng cách chỉ mua cổ phiếu với giá cực rẻ so với giá trị thực, bạn sẽ có cơ hội kiếm được nhiều tiền khi thị trường tự điều chỉnh. Bạn mua cổ phiếu càng rẻ thì khả năng mắc sai lầm và rủi ro càng thấp.

89 thoughts on “Các tiêu chí để đánh giá một Công ty thực sự tiềm năng hay không?

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